The last game of the 2018/19 NFL season is almost here and Patriot fans have been waiting for this day since last year’s disappointing loss against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, that’s in the past now and New England won’t get caught napping again thanks to the ageless Tom Brady looking more determined than ever to win his sixth Super Bowl ring. Many people want to get money down on the game so they can cheer a little bit louder if Belichick and the boys hoist another trophy, so let’s take a look at the most popular Tom Brady prop wagers in Super Bowl LIII and where you will find the best odds to bet them.
First of all, there’s a huge difference of opinion on how many total yards Brady is going to throw for, with Bovada posting a line of 300½ and MyBookie having 314½, so the good news is that this enables you to line shop and get a little extra value for your Over/Under plays. Of course, there are so many lines out there for this game you could probably be shopping forever – it’s basically a full time job.
One place that was a little disappointing during our shopping trip was Intertops because you’ll notice that they only have “Yes” propositions for many of their Super Bowl specials. This forces you into taking a number that you might not want, for example their one involving a lofty “Tom Brady to gain Over 325½ passing yards,” with the “Yes” paying a meagre +165, (remember that you can get over 300½ at Bovada for a slightly smaller payout). From there their lines get even crazier with 350½ yards paying +325 and 400½ yards giving you odds of +1000. Not even the most diehard Pats fan thinks that Brady will go over 400 on Sunday… Right?
Moving on to how many completions Brady will throw for, Bovada has the line at 25½, while Intertops again tries to guide you directly where they want you to bet with their Over 29½ passes prop which pays +300 on the only answer of “Yes”. Thankfully, MyBookie has the line at 27½ with the freedom to bet on either the Over (+100) or the Under (-130) as you wish.
It’s no secret that Tom can throw a deep ball, so it’s a little strange that BetOnline has the longest pass completion for Brady set at 38½ yards (-110 both sides) because it “feels” like it should be a little more than that. However, Bovada actually goes slightly lower and has it set at 37½ yards (-115 both sides), revealing that perhaps the bookies think Father Time is catching up with him.
One of the funniest bets you can place for Super Bowl Sunday has to be at MyBookie and their line for Brady’s rush yards at a “massive” 2½, with the Over (+100) and Under (-130) both paying small returns. Sure Tom isn’t known for his running skills (he’s averaged 1.7 yards a game during his career) but this number seems kind of low. That said, this wager will be fun to cheer for no matter which side you get down on.
Finally, in regards to total touchdown passes for Brady, BOL has the line at 2½ with the Over paying +140 and the Under favored at -160. Pat Morrow is working things a little different for the Bovada prop wagers and he’s giving you the choice of taking the Over/Under on 1.5, 2, or 2.5 TD passes with different odds for each. Obviously the longest shot is Under 1.5 (+175) because most expect him to be throwing the ball a lot but maybe Belichick plans on shocking the world with a run-heavy game.
No matter where the chips fall this weekend one thing’s for sure: we’re never going to see another NFL quarterback with Tom Brady’s level of success. Even the haters have to admit it – playing professional football at this level when you’re 41 years old is pretty darn hard. It’s crazy that he’s the favorite to win the Super Bowl 53 MVP Award but at this point, nothing’s shocking.